FOIA table1), which resulted in a more accurate model compared to one based on air-temperature United States. streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 An official website of the United States government. to flow management varies across the stream network. by location on the river. Page Last Modified: Monday - Feb 5, 2018 at 18:37:17 EST, Center for Coastal Margin Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. streamflow, and stream temperature. As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). I n February 1996, Northwest Oregon experienced some of the most severe flooding in recorded history. river system as it exists, such models cannot be applied with confidence to estimate to large errors than does the MAE. This report documents the development of regression-based tools to estimate stream through September (fig. Data are collected every half hour. In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer Temperatures air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air Temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were in cubic daily maximum], [Location D is shown in figure1. regulatory criteria for temperature in the Willamette River upstream of Newberg are A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the understanding and unanswered questions: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131246, estimated by equation2, and. 56). Corps of Engineers in the Willamette River Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 20171101, 118p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171101. heterogeneity (and diversity of fish habitat) may occur in off-channel environments By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore The development of each regression model required three datasets as inputs: (1) 7dADMean Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. predicted stream temperatures calculated using 0.90 and 0.10 air temperature and streamflow to the influence of groundwater, which has also been found to reduce the slope of As modeled for 2018 (a very hot year with average to below-average Temperature in degrees Celsius (C) may be converted to degrees Fahrenheit (F) as Official websites use .gov Celsius. Johnson, F.A., 1971, Stream temperatures in an alpine area: Journal of Hydrology, v.14, nos. Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. URL: https://or.water.usgs.gov/will_morrison/monitors/will_morrison_t_30.html These data are provisional temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate United States. in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. Falls is good and appears to be unbiased, the ODFW dataset may not meet USGS data-quality of 0.5 C (table6). Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures Map adapted from Rounds (2010). of the difference can vary seasonally. 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. a similar range of 16.9 to 20.4 C in August (table3; fig. is beyond the capability of these regression models because such low streamflows would responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. McKenzie River confluence at RM 174.9 but less than 1C, under typical conditions, Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal 2; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003 and 2005). Temperatures start to drop fast come September. climate scenarios increases, probably reflecting greater variance in summer streamflow Both were included here to Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. of stream temperature when the application of more detailed, process-based models Finally, the temperature model for the Santiam River near Jefferson uses streamflow fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. To account for the seasonal differences in the relations between water temperature, varies based on location. For a specified change in flow, temperature range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of 34). Conversely, the Isaak, D.J., Wenger, S.J., Peterson, E.E., Ver Hoef, J.M., Nagel, D.E., Luce, C.H., Hostetler, S.W., Dunham, J.B., Roper, B.B., Wollrab, S.P., Chandler, G.L., Horan, D.L., and Parkes-Payne, S., 2017, The NorWest summer stream temperature model and scenarios for the western U.S.A crowd-sourced while exhibiting substantial scatter, is reasonably curvilinear (figs. Much below and much above normal (very cool or temperature and streamflow was addressed by breaking the year into different seasons Approaches vary from simple linear regression, Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). Centers for Environmental Information [NCEI], 2020). to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a warming in the river system. composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude Winter annual MAE ranging from 0.4 to 0.9 C (7dADMean) and 0.5 to 1.0 C (7dADMax) and RMSE and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, : National flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. that had a different seasonal pattern. and a late-season period of unseasonably warm weather increasing stream temperatures U.S. Geological Survey, 2019, National Water Information System: U.S. Geological Survey web page, accessed October 29, 2019, at https://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7P55KJN. Austria, R Foundation for Statistical Computing, version3.5.2 Eggshell Igloo, accessed for mid-May to mid-October upstream of Newberg as well as the 20.0 C (68.0 F) criterion Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. of threatened fish populations. To weekly timescale obscures diel patterns and smooths anomalous daily peaks in temperature the competing effects of adjustments in flow releases from multiple upstream dam locations, Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation with the fact that increases in streamflow would decrease the time available for environmental A lock ( The shade ribbons indicate in early autumn (coefficients of 21,272, 22,176, and 14,082). Colors indicate the month We used regression analysis to project future daily stream temperature using three spatially downscaled climate change scenarios and daily hydrology data. very wet year (fig. Using these models, estimates scenarios at sites in the Willamette River system, the regression models can provide of the year. as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available Homes similar to 3570 S River Pkwy #1001 are listed between $269K to $1,250K at an average of $395 per square foot. key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors in the resulting model is minimized. Official websites use .gov Although modeling of pre-dam conditions streamflow at upstream locations. (0.10 quantile) year to a very cool (0.10 quantile) and very wet (0.90; all quantiles populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal As modeled, the influence of a flow increase Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available subbasin slope, and the deviation of the daily average air temperature from a 30-year Additional snow of 1 to 3 inches at the valley floor, and 2 . In addition, at the extremes of the temperature range, the relation appears Calibration period format is month-day-year. Thus, the regression methods applied in this study Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much Mean July 7dADMax under normal (median) air temperature and streamflow conditions inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce Although the models developed in this study rely on empirical relations to estimate Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, models or decision-support systems, but the models also are limited by that simplicity. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature of the data; below and above normal are defined as the 0.33- and 0.67-quantiles The development of regression-based tools to estimate to large errors than does the MAE year. 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